The End, that week_
October 10, 2026 – October 16, 2026
Status for this edition: 43%
| Scenario | Editorial score |
|---|---|
| Oven Mode | 44 |
| The Red Button | 41 |
| Pandemic: Season 2 | 45 |
| AI Already Read the Manual | 42 |
| Nature Left the Chat | 43 |
The Amazon is burning. Manaus is breathing the consequences.
Agência Brasil documents 540 fire detections in 48 hours and an emergency response across 36 municipalities. Smoke affects Manaus, keeping in-person classes suspended on October 13 and 14. Authorities are investigating possible deliberate fire-setting.
+3 for observed fires with regional effects on ecosystems and public services. The investigation does not establish criminal responsibility. This event is scored only under nature, with no additional climate points or repeat scoring of the El Niño forecast. Firefighting deployments do not yet demonstrate ecological recovery.
Original publication ↗Kenya finds two more cases. Contact tracing caught them.
WHO confirms two new Ebola cases on October 14 and 16, both relatives of the first patient. They were already in quarantine when symptoms appeared. Kenya has three cases and one death; authorities report no evidence of community transmission.
+1 for two infections linked to the imported case, a substantive update distinct from its arrival in Kenya. Detection in quarantine and the absence of evidence of community transmission limit the increase. The importation, the first patient’s death and cumulative DRC totals are not scored again.
Original publication ↗AI is back for testing. This time, with access.
The UK government confirms that its AI Security Institute is already evaluating the latest advanced models following work with developers and the United States. It also announces preparations for agent incidents; legal changes remain under consideration.
0 points: external evaluations are underway and improve oversight, but they do not demonstrate an actual reduction in risk or establish that the models are safe. Access for testing alone does not justify lowering the bar. Announced legal changes remain under consideration.
Original publication ↗Editorial index, not a scientific probability. The header links to the current edition; this archive shows the values for edition 004.
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